The Future of Fire: What's Next
NFPA Journal®, March/April 2009
By Kathleen H. Almand, P.E., FSFPE, & Casey Grant, P.E.
Last November, 130 leaders from the research, engineering, fire service, facility fire protection, and manufacturing fields gathered in Washington, D.C., to celebrate the 25th anniversary of the Fire Protection Research Foundation. The theme of the conference was “Preparing for the Next 25 Years,” and it displayed all the attributes of a milestone moment in how we think about fire protection in this country. Participants were challenged to consider the enormous changes taking place in three fundamental areas—society and demographics; materials and technology; and environment, energy, and sustainability—and what those changes mean for the future of U.S. fire safety, including their impact on NFPA codes and standards. This is a glimpse of that future.
Older, diverse, more: Society and demographics
According to keynote presenter Dr. Kevin McCarthy, senior social scientist at the Rand Corporation, the U.S. population will grow steadily over the next 25 years by about 1 percent, or 3 million people, per year. Immigration will account for 40 percent of that growth, with the Asian and Hispanic portion of the overall population growing from 22 percent to 34 percent.1 Population increases will primarily occur in southern and western states, most notably Arizona, Florida, Nevada, and North Carolina, and will be increasingly concentrated in urban areas.2,3 Some of these urban zones are subject to large-scale, man-made, and natural disasters, including wildland fires, hurricanes, and earthquakes.4 The composition of the population is also changing. The median age of the population will grow from 35 to 38 years.5 The percentage of the population that is working will shrink, while the senior population will increase from 12.5 percent of the population to 20 percent.6 These factors mean more single-person households and fewer households with children, resulting in shifts in housing types.
| 1. Public fire safety education programs are responding to demographic and cultural shifts in a variety of ways, including messaging for the elderly and for people whose first language is not English. Conference panelist Larry McKenna of the U.S. Fire Administration noted that deeply rooted cultural barriers would likely continue to pose challenges for fire safety advocates and that related efforts such as the volunteer fire service may see a decline in the coming years. |
| 2. Urban growth patterns show an increasing trend toward higher-density populations, and this will require a realignment of all the codes and standards addressing the built environment. Some of these concerns are already being studied by groups such as NFPA’s High-Rise Building Safety Advisory Committee, in place since 2004, which is addressing the increasing trend toward higher buildings as a result of expected higher-density populations. Conference participant Stacy Welch, of Marriott, noted that “buildings are more complex than they’ve ever been before, and in the most congested urban areas.” Building codes such as NFPA 5000®, Building Construction and Safety Code®, will need to keep pace with these changing patterns. |
| 3. As our population becomes more concentrated in urban or suburban areas, our emergency response procedures, including evacuation routes and firefighting tactics, must adapt. The fire service and other emergency responders will need to keep pace to better address large-scale, man-made, and natural disasters. Documents such as NFPA 1561, Emergency Services Incident Management System, will need to adapt to address these changes. |
| 4. One particular facet of shifting urban growth patterns is the fire problem affecting the wildland-urban interface. Recent decades have already seen more of these disasters, and shifting populations continue to magnify the problem. Initiatives such as the NFPA Firewise© program are taking on new importance as they provide critical guidance to communities on mitigation strategies for wildland fires, and documents such as NFPA 1144, Reducing Structure Ignition Hazards from Wildland Fire, are taking on renewed importance, too. |
| 5. As the population ages, we must consider effective means to address the disabled in our fire safety strategies. For example, NFPA 72®, National Fire Alarm Code®, is addressing the requirements for effective signals for the hearing impaired, and NFPA 101®, Life Safety Code®, is currently considering changes in building design provisions to enable the evacuation/safety of the physically disabled, including the use of elevators. Other groups such as NFPA’s Accessibility Advisory Committee are studying ways to better help populations that are physically challenged. |
| 6. The decline in the workforce will affect all fire safety disciplines, said conference panelist Ozzie Mirkah of Las Vegas Fire & Rescue. “The aging population will increase demand for emergency response at the same time it is depleting our numbers,” said Mirkah. “We must increase our focus on fire prevention to address this issue.” |
New Hopes, New Concerns: materials and Technology
The coming decades will be marked by major advances in materials and technology.1 Areas including information availability and utility, biotechnology, smart materials, and nanotechnologies are developing at a rapid rate, as are their applications.2,3 Biotechnology applications, for example, include personalized medicine based on databases of patient information.4 Nanotechnology applications, meanwhile, range from new families of chemical and biological sensors and battery-capacity improvements to wearable personal medical-monitoring devices and enhanced capabilities of widespread human and environmental monitoring—all with obvious and far-reaching implications for the fire service and fire safety efforts.5,6
| 1. Advances in electronics technology, for example, hold enormous potential to help us detect fires. Conference panelist Bob Boyer of GE Security said that such advances, including multisensor technology, “would result in lower false alarms, provide better detection, and improve efficiencies.” NFPA 72®, National Fire Alarm Code®, is monitoring these new technologies to provide the appropriate performance and installation criteria. |
| 2. The impact of nanomaterials on fire safety has yet to be fully researched and understood. These and other new materials used in building furnishings and construction—new lightweight roofing construction materials, for example—may change many of our basic fire safety design approaches. Test methods used to evaluate the hazards of materials are currently being addressed by the NFPA Fire Test Committee, along with other fire safety testing and standards organizations. |
| 3. Technology advances with direct application to the fire service are experiencing an unprecedented boom. “We need to continue to stimulate this advancement and promote fire service improvements such as integrated sensors and controls and locator systems that will greatly help firefighters,” said conference panelist Anthony Hamins of the National Institute of Standards and Technology. NFPA’s personal protective clothing and equipment standards, such as NFPA 1971, Protective Ensembles for Structural Fire Fighting and Proximity Fire Fighting, are undergoing continual updates to implement the latest technologies. |
| 4. Technology applied to safety and health issues is also under intensive study. Conference participant Ellen Sogolow of the Assistance to Firefighters Grant Program noted the “application to clinical techniques for real-time monitoring of firefighter safety during fire events,” including improved breathing environments and enhanced monitoring of body temperature and heart-rate data. Such research will ultimately provide important new data for firefighter safety and health documents such as NFPA 1582, Comprehensive Occupational Medical Program for Fire Departments. |
| 5. The trend in customization of technologies to meet specific performance objectives is directly applicable to fire suppression systems. NFPA 13, Installation of Sprinkler Systems, provides installation and performance guidance for a growing array of new sprinkler designs. Changes in storage configurations—contents, packaging, storage volume, and automatic retrieval—in retail and storage occupancies are increasing the volume and hazard of stored commodities, creating new, challenging scenarios. NFPA 13 is responding to this challenge through the development of new provisions for the protection of stored goods. |
| 6. While many of these new technologies offer great promise for the future of fire safety, keynote presenter Dr. Philip Anton, director of the Acquisition and Technology Policy Center at the RAND Corporation, pointed out that new technologies bring with them new concerns. Safety and health technology could raise issues related to privacy and ethics, Anton said, while new materials could present new health hazards or new sets of fire hazards. |
An Inconvenient Dilemma: Environment, Energy, and Sustainability
Climate change is in evidence across the globe. According to keynote presenter Shere Abbott, director of the Center for the Science and Practice of Sustainability at the University of Texas, more than 800 major floods have occurred worldwide since 2000, and wildfires in the western United States have increased fourfold in the last 30 years.1 Carbon dioxide emissions have grown by a third in the last 50 years, with a corresponding increase in the global average air temperature of 1°F (0.5°C).2 Our natural resources are declining as a result of increased demand and the ßdegradation of natural ecosystems.3 Water demand worldwide has tripled in the last 50 years; 36 U.S. states face immediate water shortages.4 More than half the world’s population currently lives in cities, with that figure poised to increase sharply. By 2050, the number of people worldwide living in cities is projected to double or triple to around 7 billion.5
| 1. The implications of climate change are profound and promise to reshape how we think of fire safety. Along with a possible increase in the number and severity of natural disasters, the increased demand on emergency responders calls for new tactics and will affect fire service-based standards such as NFPA 1670, Operations and Training for Technical Search and Rescue Incidents. “We need to be more resilient to changes in the environment and better learn to adapt our firefighting skills and strategies,” said Chief Bill Stewart of the Toronto Fire Services, a conference panelist. “We need to have mitigation and adaption strategies.” |
| 2. Transportation-related energy issues will take on even greater urgency, and advancements will create new fire safety opportunities—and new hazards. Greater use of alternative vehicles and their various fuels—biodiesel, ethanol/alcohol, hydrogen, and electricity, for example—present different hazards and will demand unique emergency response and firefighting tactics, as well as fire protection systems. NFPA has proactively responded to address one of these new fuels with the development of the proposed NFPA 2, Hydrogen Technologies Code. |
| 3. Sustainability will fuel continued pressure on environmental restrictions for a range of chemicals, a trend that affects virtually all NFPA codes and standards, from the selection of fire suppressants to the hazard control of building contents and furnishings. NFPA already resides at the leading edge of this issue. NFPA 2001, Clean Agent Fire Extinguishing Systems, for example, originated several decades ago out of the need for environmentally friendly clean agent suppression systems. But much work remains. “Substitutes such as some flame retardants simply do not achieve the same level of performance [as traditional materials],” said conference panelist Jim Pauley of Schneider Electric/Square D Company. “There are no obvious alternatives.” |
| 4. Declining water resources will continue to have a major impact on fire suppression systems and firefighting strategies, from residential firefighting and home fire sprinkler designs to water pressure requirements for high-rise buildings and other high-water-volume fire control strategies. These concerns call for “new approaches to fire protection testing and maintenance,” said conference participant Jon Hall, with FM Global. “We must find new methods to reduce water consumption.” |
| 5. Energy conservation awareness will continue to fuel developments in green building design. The fire safety impact of new types of wall construction, increased thermal tightness, and alternative energy sources such as solar will need to be addressed. They are already having a direct impact on important codes such as NFPA 1, Fire CodeTM, and NFPA 101®, Life Safety Code®. |